Tired of waiting for solar photovoltaics costs to finally drop? Looks like the wait is almost up. Average Selling Prices (ASPs) of solar photovoltaic modules are expected to decline 20% in 2009 and 25% in 2010.
After subsidies, Plan B for module makers is to sell products at a discount to keep inventory moving. It helps that manufacturing costs continue to decline about 10% each year, thanks to design improvements and benefits of scale. But it seems a little coincidental that most solar companies happened to predict the ASP for their products will decline at the exact same rate.
Analysts from Deutsche Bank (nyse: DB – news – people ), UBS (nyse: UBS – news – people ), Hapoalim Securities and Goldman Sachs all reached a different consensus, namely that ASPs will need to decline closer to 20% in 2009 to absorb excess inventory, and as much as 25% the following year.